Publications

The Swiss federal government’s energy strategy is wishful thinking, says ETH researcher, NZZ, 19.7.22

Risk researcher Didier Sornette, a physicist who is chair of Entrepreneurial Risks at ETH, criticizes the fact that the transition from today’s energy system to one that relies to a large extent on solar power is being presented too optimistically by the authorities. This creates a dangerous illusion of security and control, according to a new working paper by Sornette and fellow researcher Euan Mearns. 

external pagehttps://www.nzz.ch/english/swiss-federal-governments-energy-strategy-flawed-ld.1694169call_made

PhD thesis:

• Ali Ayoub, DownloadFor a safer nuclear outlook: learning from experience within an adaptive and generic probabilistic safety assessment framework (PDF, 4.8 MB)vertical_align_bottom, (1 Dec 2021)
  

Nuclear Events Database:

• Ali Ayoub, Andrej Stankovski, Wolfgang Kröger, and Didier Sornette,
  The ETH Zurich Curated Nuclear Events Database: Layout, Event Classification, and Analysis of Contributing Factors,
  Reliability Engineering and System Safety 213, 107781 (2021)
  
• Ali Ayoub, Andrej Stankovski, Wolfgang Kröger, and Didier Sornette,
  Precursors and startling lessons: Statistical analysis of 1250 events with safety significance from the civil nuclear sector
  Reliability Engineering and System Safety 214, 107820 (2021)
  
• Ali Ayoub, Spencer Wheatley, Wolfgang Kröger and Didier Sornette, “ETHZ Curated Nuclear Events Database”, http://er-nucleardb.ethz.ch [2019].
• Ali Ayoub, Andrej Stankovski, Wolfgang Kröger and Didier Sornette, “Status of the ETHZ Curated Nuclear Events Database”, ESREL2020-PSAM15, 2020.
• Andrej Stankovski, “DownloadEnhancement of the ETHZ Nuclear Events Database and Preliminary Trend Analysis (PDF, 3.8 MB)vertical_align_bottom”, Master thesis (February 2020)
• Spencer Wheatley, Wolfgang Kröger, Lan Chen and Didier Sornette “Open comprehensive nuclear event database”, Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management PSAM 14, September 2018, Los Angeles, CA (external pagehttp://psam14.org/proceedings/paper/paper_401_1.pdfcall_made)

Generic PSA Models Development

• Ali Ayoub, Wolfgang Kröger and Didier Sornette. "Generic Probabilistic Safety Assessment Models for International Precursor Analysis Applications", International Youth Nuclear Congress (IYNC2020), Sydney, Australia, March 2020.
• Ali Ayoub, Wolfgang Kröger, Olivier Nusbaumer and Didier Sornette, “SIMPLIFIED/HARMONIZED PSA: A GENERIC MODELING FRAMEWORK”, ANS PSA 2019 International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Analysis, Charleston, SC, USA (external pagehttps://www.researchgate.net/profile/Ali_Ayoub4/publication/338793682_SIMPLIFIEDHARMONIZED_PSA_A_GENERIC_MODELING_FRAMEWORK/links/5e2addce4585150ee77e85eb/SIMPLIFIED-HARMONIZED-PSA-A-GENERIC-MODELING-FRAMEWORK.pdf)call_made
• Xi Chen, DownloadGeneric Level 2 Probabilistic Safety Analysis on Pressurized Water Reactors (PDF, 1.6 MB)vertical_align_bottom (PDF, 1.6 MB), Master thesis (August 2019)

Precursor Analysis

• Spencer Wheatley, Wolfgang Kröger, Olivier Nusbaumer and Didier Sornette “Analysis of precursor accidents in nuclear power”, Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management PSAM 14, September 2018, Los Angeles, CA (external pagehttp://psam14.org/proceedings/paper/paper_402_1.pdfcall_made)

Diverse Nuclear Topics

• Wolfgang Kröoger, Didier Sornette and Ali Ayoub, Towards Safer and more sustainable ways for exploiting nuclear power, World Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology 10, 91-115 (2020) (external pagehttps://www.scirp.org/journal/wjnstcall_made, ISSN Online: 2161-6809)
  
• Spencer Wheatley, Benjamin Sovacool and Didier Sornette, Of Disasters and Dragon Kings: A Statistical Analysis of Nuclear Power Incidents & Accidents, Risk Analysis 37 (1), 99-115 (2017) (DOI: 10.1111/risa.12587, pp. 1-17 (2016)) (external pagehttp://arxiv.org/abs/1504.02380call_made). DownloadA criticism of the work by Dr. Patrick Walden is available here (PDF, 1009 KB)vertical_align_bottom. DownloadThe response to this criticism by the authors is available here (PDF, 155 KB)vertical_align_bottom
• Spencer Wheatley and Didier Sornette, DownloadUne perspective indépendante sur les coûts d’une société avec ou sans nucléaire (PDF, 710 KB)vertical_align_bottom, Le Temps, November 14, 2016
• Tom Whipple, DownloadNuclear watchdogs downplaying the risks (PDF, 69 KB)vertical_align_bottom, The Times, September 19, 2016 Press Release: Risk of Another Chernobyl or Fukushima Type Accident Plausible, Experts say, University of Sussex and ETH Zurich, September 19, 2016
• Spencer Wheatley, Benjamin K. Sovacool and Didier Sornette, DownloadReassessing the Safety of Nuclear Power (PDF, 546 KB)vertical_align_bottom, Energy Research & Social Science 15, 96-100 (2016)
• Spencer Wheatley, Benjamin Sovacool and Didier Sornette, Statistically assessing of the risks of commercial nuclear energy, SGR Newsletter 44, 10-11 (2016) (SGR: Scientists for Global Responsibility)
• Didier Sornette, A civil super-Apollo project in nuclear R&D for a safer and prosperous world, Energy Research & Social Science 8, 60-65 (2015) (external pagehttp://arxiv.org/abs/1504.06985call_made and external pagehttp://ssrn.com/abstract=2601034call_made)
• Wolfgang Kroeger and Didier Sornette, Reflections on Limitations of Current PSA Methodology, ANS PSA 2013 International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Analysis, Columbia, South Carolina, USA, September 22-26, 2013, on CD-ROM, American Nuclear Society, LaGrange Park, IL (2013), invited article for the Probabilistic Safety Analysis 2013 (PSA2013) (accepted 5 July 2013) (external pagewww.psa2013.orgcall_made)
• Didier Sornette, Thomas Maillart and Wolfgang Kroeger, Exploring the limits of safety analysis in complex technological systems, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 6, 59-66 (2013)
  (external pagehttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420913000253call_made) and (external pagehttp://arxiv.org/abs/1207.5674call_made)